Influenza Update #24 - H1N1-(swine)

MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss   INFLUENZA UPDATE #24 WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5 June 1, 2009   SUBSCRIBE: Click button at bottom or send email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com So what's going on in the Southern Hemisphere? As flu season gets underway in the Southern Hemisphere, things heat up in Australia and South America. Will this push the WHO to declare a pandemic?    Current Situation: The WHO reported 17410 confirmed cases in 62 countries. Remember, in countries with large outbreaks, the absolute number of cases is less important than the disease outbreak pattern. In many parts of the world, there is insufficient public health infrastructure to accurately test or count new cases. In the U.S., there are 10,053 probable or confirmed cases with 17 deaths in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. On Saturday, the CDC posted new interim guidance for businesses. You can find this guidance at: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/workplace.htm The number of cases in Australia has risen significantly and now doubles about every two days. The head of public health at the University of New South Wales said that the virus has clearly gained a foothold in Australia and is spreading through various communities. It was estimated that fro every confirmed case in Australia, there are between 2-10 unconfirmed cases.  Cases numbers continue to grow in South America. Chile is up to 276 cases, Argentina reported 35 new cases over the weekend for a total of 115. There are also new cases in Brazil and Peru. HOUSEKEEPING ITEM:  If you get this Alert through a mailing list and not directly from us, subscribe by clicking the button at the bottom or send an email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com       ANALYSIS:    With Influenza falling out of the media throughout most of the U.S. and with numbers of new cases slowing down across much of the country, its easy to take your eye off this ball. That would be a mistake. This is a new virus that is just now entering into its favorite season in the Southern Hemisphere, namely winter. With that in mind, it is not unexpected that cases in Australia would double every 2 days or that cases in South America would continue to climb. It will be important to follow the evolution of this virus over our summer to anticipate what our next flu season will look like. Most flu experts expect this strain to play a major role in next winter's flu season. So the unanswered question remains......will it turn more deadly or stay the same. At this point, nobody knows. We must also remember that for people with underlying medical problems or pregnant women, the current form of the H1N1 (swine) virus can cause serious illness. So don't take your eye off this dark cloud on the horizon. We will continue to help you follow this evolution over the summer.       ADVICE: Ensure that someone follows the developments of H1N1 (swine) over the summer. This is still an evolving outbreak. No one knows how this virus and the other circulating flu viruses will react.  Arrange for a medical advisor before next flu season. Regardless of how H1N1 (swine) evolves, it will be back in the fall. You will need to make medical decisions on how best to protect your employees and keep your business going. Involve your medical director in your planning efforts. If you don't have a medical director, sign up for our Virtual Medical Director Program and we'll be your medical director. Continue your planning efforts. I know I keep repeating this but now is the time to write missing policies, test plans, run exercises. Consider this H1N1 (swine) outbreak as a dry run for a worse fall flu season.   Virtual Medical Director Program:   If you don't have a corporate medical director, we'll be your medical director. Our Virtual Medical Director service provides you with 24 hour access to physicians and experts trained in emergency medicine, disaster medicine, business continuity, occupational health and mental health crisis management to give you situation updates, analysis and advice. Contact us for further information.     Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly.       If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com       MedPrep Consulting Group is internationally recognized as a leader in pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising. We have resources and expertise that you can count on. Ask us about our Virtual Medical Director Program.   Dr. Stuart Weiss is the CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. For more information, visit www.MedPrepGroup.com   Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP MedPrep Consulting Group LLC