Influenza Update - November 15

Novel Influenza H1N1 Update  Dr. Stuart B. Weiss   INFLUENZA UPDATE Nov 15, 2009   SUBSCRIBE: Click button at bottom or send email to: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com Perhaps there is a small light at the end of the tunnel Its way too early to say for sure but there are some early signs that flu activity may have peaked in the US and is slightly declining.   Current Situation: The CDC reports that 46 states now report widespread flu activity, this is down from 48 states last week. The number of people visiting physicians in the US for influenza-like illness has decreased for the second straight week although the overall number is still very high. The WHO reports that while there is some slowing of new cases in the US, Canada has reported sharp increases over the past three weeks and there is increasing activity in several European countries as well as some regions in eastern Asia. The huge outbreak in the Ukraine continues to be a big problem for that country. They are estimating that there have been over 1 million cases there (the country only has 48 million people). There have been sharp increases in flu activity in some Middle Eastern counties including Israel and Afghanistan as well as increases in eastern Asia including China and Japan. See the WHO update at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/index.html for more details. Vaccine Update: Supply of H1N1 vaccine continues to be a problem in the US. As we wrote about earlier, there are significant delays in shipment of vaccine from manufacturers. Several manufacturers this week stated that they will be shipping much more vaccine shortly and will meet their US government commitments. Although the US Government had originally predicted that we would have 60-80 million doses by this point, only 41.6 million have been shipped. Around the world, millions of people have received the vaccine and it continues to be a very safe vaccine. CDC changed the way it tracks and counts pandemic H1N1 cases increasing the numbers included in the case counts. The new, more inclusive counts are: There have probably been around 22 million cases of pandemic H1N1 illness in the US Approximately 98,000 people have been hospitalized for flu related illnesses There have been 3900 deaths with 540 pediatric deaths The breakdowns are as follows: Cases: 0-17 = 8 million cases, 18-64 = 12 million, 65+ = 2 million Hospitalizations: 0-17 = 36,000, 18-64 = 53,000, 65+ = 9000 Deaths: 0-17 = 540, 18-64 = 2920, 65+ = 440 The new CDC counts do not indicate any change in the disease, just a more accurate counting of the cases.     HOUSEKEEPING ITEM:  If you get this Alert through a mailing list and not directly from us, subscribe by clicking the button at the bottom or send an email to me at sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com       ANALYSIS:    Although it is way to early to make any predictions, the fact that visits to physicians for influenza-like illness has dropped for the second week in a row and the number of states with widespread flu illness has dropped by two may be pointing to the US having peaked a few weeks ago with this wave of the influenza pandemic. Remember that cases are still markedly rising in some parts of the world and we may still see significant supply chain interruptions around the world. But before you start thinking that the worst has passed us, it is important to understand that it is way too early to decide that. We will need to continue to watch this disease carefully as it unfolds in the coming weeks to know if we have peaked in the US.   As you continue your pandemic planning efforts, you should take a look at a good document that the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) put out last week. Based in large part on the September summit, CIDRAP, in collaboration with the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) released a new toolkit: Doing Business During an Influenza Pandemic: Human Resource Policies, Protocols, Templates, Tools, & Tips. It is definitely worth a read. The toolkit is available free of charge as a PDF document: http://www.cidrapsource.com/hrtoolkit   ADVICE (we continue to recommend the following): Keep yourself informed on what is going on. We will help you do that through our Business Alerts but you may want to also subscribe to ProMed and look at the CIDRAP site frequently. This virus is spreading and adapting and you need to anticipate problems. If you have finished writing plans and policies, think about validating those plans or policies with an external audit or small drills and exercises.   Watch out for pandemic fatigue. With all the information flowing out there and the blogs and webinars and seminars and notices its easy to get overloaded and tired. Pick a few trusted sources and stick with them.   TOOLS: Pandemic QuickStart - If you need to quickly bring your company up to speed with its pandemic planing efforts, we can help with our quickstart resources.   Virtual Medical Director - If you don't have a corporate medical director, our Virtual Medical Director program may be a good solution for you. Our Virtual Medical Director service provides you with 24 hour access to physicians and experts trained in emergency medicine, disaster medicine, business continuity, occupational health and mental health crisis management to give you situation updates, analysis and advice. We have affordable decision support plans that you can enroll in.   Pandemic Planning Assistance - We have a policy matrix, policy toolkits, FAQ's, posters, employee educational materials, a trigger based action plan template . We can help you jumpstart your planning or take a look at your current plans with a fresh set of eyes.         Not preparing now would be a serious mistake.       If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com       MedPrep Consulting Group is internationally recognized as a leader in pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising. We have resources and expertise that you can count on. Ask us about our Virtual Medical Director Program.   Dr. Stuart Weiss is the CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. For more information, visit www.MedPrepGroup.com   Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP MedPrep Consulting Group LLC