Influenza Update #2 - U.S./Mexico Situation

MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss  IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #2 US/MEXICO SITUATION April 25, 2009 Are we at WHO Pandemic Phase 4 already? While the epidemiologic studies and public health work is continuing in the U.S. and Mexico the World Health Organization (WHO) is holding an emergency meeting of top experts to consider what actions to take.   CURRENT SITUATION: As was mentioned yesterday, the viral strain afecting people in the U.S. and Mexico are the same. The virus is a novel form of H1N1 with a mixture of pig, avian and human genes in a combination not previously seen. With over 900 people affected in Mexico and people infected in the U.S., sustained human-to-human transmission is the most likely method of spread. This swine H1N1 IS SUSCEPTABLE to Tamiflu and Relenza but resistant to Adamantane class of drugs. Although the data is very limited, it appears that vaccination with this year's seasonal influenza vaccine does not protect against this new strain of flu. The CDC is putting out interim guidance on their website. For the latest information, go to: www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm Because of the widepsread nature of the outbreak, the liklihood of containment at this point is little to none. There is still CONSIDERALE UNCERTAINTY about whether this will progress to a pandemic, stablize and simmer for a long time or burn itself out. The cases in the U.S. were all mild while some of the cases in Mexico were much more severe and lethal. Bloomberg is reporting that the WHO may declare this "an International Public Health Emergency"   ANALYSIS: This situation is highly fluid as details from Mexico are emerging. The fact that there has been such widespread disease reported makes human-to-human transmission "increased". This MEETS THE CRITERIA for WHO Pandemic Phase 4. It is challenging to make this statement ahead of the WHO however there are many political and economic reasons why the WHO might delay that annoucement. Remember, this does not mean that a pandemic is right around the corner or inevitable. What this does mean is that the risk is higher than it has been for a pandemic and you should not treat this as business as usual. Your activities should be more urgent as you review your pandemic preparedness. It is important to discuss with your leadership that although preparations might be reviewed and some may be implemented, this is a fluid situation.   ADVICE: Communicate with your employees. Your employees have seen the news reports that have been splashed across television, radio and newspapers. Now is the time to communicate with your employees on company preparations and personal preparations that should be undertaken. Remind them where they can get reliable sources of information (i.e. CDC, WHO, etc.) Employee Protection Strategies. Carefully consider how you will keep those employees that must come to the workplace safe during a pandemic. Will you provide masks or antiviral medications and if so, do your have sources to get these items? Review Workplace Personal Hygiene Practices. Now would be a great time to role out a hand hygiene program and a sneeze/cough ettiquette reminder. The CDC has good materials on these topics and we can help you with this as well. Review IT Capabilities. If you plan to have many employees work from home, you must seriously work though how that will happen. Carefully analyse what equipment these people will need to work from home and schedule some tests of these capabilities. Some companies have already practiced by having a work from home day once a month. Make a Quick List of Critical First Steps. If you have a pandemic plan that is well developed, then this is already fleshed out but if you do not, then take a moment and write a quick list of the critical actions you would need to take to keep your business going during a pandemic. This obviosly does not take the place of comprehensive pandemic planning but it is a start if things get bad quickly.   The WHO is having a conference call at 4PM today and we might find out further information or not. Either way, you should think about the current situation as if we are already at WHO Pandemic Phase 4. I am not recommending that you implement your full pandemic plan at this time but it is time to take a close look at your plan and implement some of the early steps. Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly.      If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com             Stuart Weiss, MD MedPrep Consulting Group LLC