Influenza Update #1 - U.S./Mexico Situation

MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss  IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE - US/MEXICO SITUATION April 24, 2009 Last year you attended a Pandemic Influenza conference that I facilitated. I promised I would bring you significant news should it occur. On a conference call this afternoon, the CDC reported that the new influenza strain that is causing illness in California and Texas and illness and death in Mexico appears to have sustained Human-to-Human transmission. Here is the latest:   CURRENT SITUATION: There have been 8 confirmed cases of a new swine H1N1 virus in the U.S. (6 in California, 2 in Texas). The ages have ranged from 7 years old to 54 years old. There is no exposure to pigs or birds leading to the suspicion of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Mexican Public Health Department is reporting 16 confirmed deaths, 44 additional suspected deaths and over 950 cases of influenze like illness, some severe, nationwide (AP report from noon today). All schools in Mexico City have been closed. The CDC is reporting that the viruses in Mexico and in the U.S. appear to be the same virus strain. This swine H1N1 IS SUSCEPTABLE to Tamiflu and Relenza but resistant to Adamantane class of drugs. The CDC is putting out interim guidance on their website.   ANALYSIS: This situation is highly fluid as details from Mexico are emerging. This new swine flu virus is made up of components of pig, bird and human influenza viruses that are combined in a way that has not been seen before. The fact that it seems to have sustained human-to-human spread is concerning. This is a situation that you should watch closely.   Part of the difficulty in tracking this situation is that some routine seasonal influenza tests used by physicians do not pick this new virus up so there may be many more cases in the U.S. that have not been picked up. We just do not know at this point.   Could this new virus casue the next pandemic? Its not possible to tell yet. Several possibilities exist: The virus will circulate for a limited amount of time and burn out The virus will circulate in humans but not cause widespread illness or death The virus will continue to evolve and spread and cause the next pandemic The virus is already poised to cause a pandemic and is emerging   ADVICE: Now would be a good time to review your pandemic plans. Pay special attention to employee protection strategies, supply chain issues and employee family preparedness. Keep a close watch on the CDC website and media outlets for the latest information. Closely watch for any travel advisories for employees travleing to Mexico. If you have employees living or working in areas that border Mexico, watch for advisories from your local health department. The CDC and local health departments will be putting out notices on the Health Alert Netowork (HAN). Review your decisions concerning participating in an influenza anti-viral program. Contact me if you have questions about these programs. It is important to remind your senior leadership that this situation is evolving and may resolve or escalate over the next few days to weeks. We just don't know.   If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com             Stuart Weiss, MD MedPrep Consulting Group LLC