| MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss | | IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #11 WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5 | | MAY 2, 2009 Daily Brief Call Today at 1:00PM call-in: 866-369-8761 | | Could we see WHO Pandemic Phase 6.....well maybe but what does that mean? | | The number of confirmed cases in the world increased by 65% since yesterday with confirmed cases in 15 countries. If the virus continues to spread we could meet the definition for World Health Organization (WHO) Phase 6 but remember the Phases refer to how widespread the virus is NOT how severe it is (see analysis below). CURRENT SITUATION: - The number of confirmed cases increased to 615 people in 15 countries around the world. This is an increase of 65% from yesterday (see analysis below).
- New totals as of this morning include 397 cases in Mexico with 16 deaths and 141 cases in the U.S. with one death.
- The Government of Hong Kong quarantined an entire hotel with 200 guests and 100 staff for 7 days after a 25 year old Mexican guest became ill with flu-like symptoms.
- Nancy Cox, the director of the CDC's Influenza Division said in a news conference that this H1N1 is different from the H1N1 that caused the 1918 severe Pandemic in that the current virus seems to lack some of the genetic characteristics that made the 1918 virus so lethal.
- As the WHO moves away from calling this virus outbreak "Swine Flu" the new name seems to be some form of H1N1 of swine origin. So you may see this called H1N1-SO or H1N1/S-OIV (swine origin influenza virus).
| | HOUSEKEEPING ITEM: If you receive this alert indirectly through a mailing list or from a friend or colleague please take a moment and sign up to receive it directly from us by clicking on the button at the bottom of this alert or by sending an email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com with the word signup in the subject. ANALYSIS: This situation is highly fluid as details continue to emerge. Overnight, the number of confirmed cases jumped by 65% to a new total of 615 people. While that is concerning it apparently is mostly due to labs catching up with the backlog of sample they received from sick Mexicans. The news media and some Mexican health officials are saying that the number of new cases in Mexico City appears to be slowing. If that is true, that is good news for Mexico but it doesn't affect the spread in other parts of the world. The virus is now confirmed in 15 countries around the world. Each of these countries outside of Mexico and the U.S. has small numbers of confirmed cases. Several are reporting larger numbers of suspected cases that are being investigated. If another country outside of North America develops a widespread community outbreak then we will meet the WHO definition for WHO Phase 6. The actual definition is: "Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region...". The important thing to remember is that WHO Phases refer to how widespread a virus is NOT how severe it is. The two previous pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were clearly not as severe as 1918 but they were still pandemics. So if the current virus goes Pandemic and maintains the same severity, then we will have many sick people and some deaths but nothing like the nightmare of 1918. You must also remember that H5N1 is still simmering in Egypt. I know we are focusing on H1N1-SO at the moment but the two viruses are not mutually exclusive. The bottom line is that you must continue with your pandemic preparedness regardless of which way H1N1-SO goes. ADVICE: Each day, I will focus on issues from a pandemic planning area that we have found during pandemic plan audits that we have performed for our clients. - Front Gate Screening. The question about screening employees at your front entrance during a pandemic has been raised frequently. On yesterday's Daily Brief call, you heard from a nationally recognized legal expert that it is legally okay under the American with Disabilities Act to ask employees about signs and symptoms of the flu and to ask them to submit to a medical exam such as taking their temperature (I'm not a lawyer so check with your lawyer for more information). The question is should you do these things. We generally do not recommend extensive front gate screening or questioning. The last thing you want to do is create a long line of people waiting to get in, spreading illness throughout your workforce. Taking employee's temperature is not useful either since people can be contagious 24 hours before they begin to feel sick. The best advice is to teach your employees to stay home if they are sick and to stay home for 7 days from onset of symptoms or 24 hours after they feel better (Which ever is longer). This is a culture that you should create now
- Antiviral Program update. I have spoken to both Roche and GSK about their corporate anti-viral programs. Both companies have told me that there is no shortage of product. They are working with the U.S. Government and the WHO to prioritize orders between CDC, WHO, Healthcare, Pharmacies and Corporations.
- Both companies have told me that if you want to implement a pandemic anti-viral program complete with employee education, medical screening and medication procurement we should refer you to one of the national companies that specialize in that. If you need referrals, email me and I will send you information.
- TAMIFLU (ROCHE) - they tell me if you just want to obtain TAMIFLU the best way is to join the RAPP program. They are taking new client applications for the RAPP program at this time and will notify you when product is allocated to you so you can finalize the process.
- RELENZA (GSK) - they have informed me that they are NO LONGER taking corporations into their PREP program so the only option if you just want RELENZA is to order it through a distributor. If you need more information, please email me.
Although we may get a chance to catch our breath in the next few weeks do not relax on your planning efforts. This virus may take a summer break but it could be back in full force this fall. Let us know if you need help reviewing your plan, designing educational posters or writing FAQ's (frequently asked questions) or policies. We have resources and expertise that you can use. Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly. If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com SUBSCRIBE TO ALERTS by clicking the button below. Dr. Stuart Weiss is a nationally recognized pandemic planning expert and CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. MedPrep can assist you with your pandemic planning, training and exercising needs. Drop me a note if you want more information about us. |
Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP
MedPrep Consulting Group LLC | | | | |
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