| MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss | | IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #17 WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5 | | MAY 8, 2009 Public Daily Brief Call: Today at 1:00PM Dial-in number: 1-866-315-9606 (no pin required) | | U.S. case numbers have still not peaked and global numbers continue to rise. With Spain now at 81 confirmed cases, is WHO Pandemic Phase 6 far behind? | | Cases in the U.S. continue to rise as expected since the U.S. is not thought to have reached its peak yet. With global numbers rising and Spain reporting 81 confirmed cases, we may still have a global pandemic before things quiet down for the summer. CURRENT SITUATION: - The WHO is reporting that there are 2384 confirmed cases of H1N1 (swine) in 24 countries around the world with 2 deaths. This is a 25% increase in a 24 hour period.
- In the U.S. the CDC announced that there are now 896 confirmed cases in 41 states. The only states without confirmed cases are AK, AR, MS, MT, ND, SD, VT, WV, WY.
- Mexico lowered its national swine flu alert from Orange (elevated) to Yellow (medium) as schools and businesses across the country reopened. The number of confirmed cases rose to 1112 with 42 deaths
- Canada reported 201 confirmed cases.
- The vast majority of H1N1 (swine) cases continue to be mild influenza illnesses in young people who recover uneventfully. The average age of hospitalized patients in the U.S. is 15 years.
- Vaccine decisions were in the news again today as CDC and other government officials decide what type and what quantity of H1N1 (swine) vaccine to order for next fall. There were some suggestions that the swine flu vaccine may require an additional two shots above the one seasonal flu shot. A Gallup poll reported that 46% of people would get the extra "swine flu" shot and 52% would not.
| | | HOUSEKEEPING ITEM: We create ALERTS in a timely fashion that reflects the urgency of an evolving public health crisis. If the situation in the U.S. continues to stabilize as expected, we anticipate that the ALERTS will be needed less frequently. We will continue to closely follow news and developments throughout the spring and summer months and will publish ALERTS as needed. This coming weekend, unless required by new developments, there will be no ALERTS published and we will resume daily ALERTS on Monday. ANALYSIS: Thank you to all the people who sent in "Lessons Learned". As requested yesterday, please take a moment and send me some thoughts about what you learned in the past two weeks. We will aggregate and de-identify the lessons and make them available to everyone. There was much attention paid to vaccines over the past few days. Why is that so important? Its important because the CDC and WHO only get one chance at getting this right. It takes months to create and manufacture vaccine and it is expensive and they have to decide now. It is a hard decision on whether to spend billions on a vaccine that might not be needed if the virus fizzles out versus not having a vaccine if H1N1 (swine) comes back with a vengeance next fall. Also, since there is only a finite amount of vaccine manufacturing capacity in the world, making H1N1 (swine ) vaccine takes away from making seasonal flu vaccine. On top of that is the suggestion that people may require two doses of H1N1 (swine) vaccine in addition to the one seasonal shot. I'm not sure how many people would sign up or follow through with a three shot series. These are the tough vaccine questions that will be decided over the next week. Its also important to remind you that the WHO may end up raising the Pandemic Phase to 6 in the next week or two signaling that a pandemic is upon us. Remember that this only refers to how widespread a virus is. There will be new headlines and increased governmental activity in some parts of the world. It may require you to adjust some company policies if you have offices or employees in countries outside of North America. I wanted to mention a few more lessons learned that we have noticed: - Governments may take extreme actions during the early part of a disease outbreak and then back off. In the early days of an outbreak when data is not fully available or understood, you will see governments take whatever measures they think are necessary to protect the public. This may be extreme such as the case was in Mexico where the entire country was essentially shutdown and then slowly reopened days later. Or as was in the U.S. where schools were initially shut after a single case and now those recommendations have been relaxed.
- Different governments will look at the same situation and take drastically different measures. We saw this with some countries closing their borders to Mexican citizens or banning pork products from the U.S. and Mexico. These measures are completely unnecessary yet they are still in effect in some places.
- Communication to employees is essential. Many of our clients found that efficiently communicating changing travel, attendance and other H.R. policies as well as good hand hygiene and cough/sneeze etiquette to their employees in a timely fashion was much more important than they had imagined.
- Sometimes local health recommendations differ from CDC recommendations. Some clients found that there was disagreement between what the CDC was recommending and what their local health department was recommending. The bottom line is that the local health department (or the State health department) usually has the final say so make sure you know what they are saying and develop a good relationship with your local health officer now.
ADVICE: Continue maturing your plan. Take this opportunity to fill in the gaps in your pandemic plan and then validate your plans through external audits, drills, exercises, etc. Avoid letting the decreasing media attention decrease your pandemic preparedness efforts. We don't know what will happen next fall.
Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly. If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com MedPrep Consulting Group is internationally recognized as a leader in pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising. We have resources and expertise that you can count on. Dr. Stuart Weiss is the CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. For more information, visit www.MedPrepGroup.com |
Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP
MedPrep Consulting Group LLC | | | | |
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