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Sunday, May 3, 2009

Influenza Update #12 - H1N1-SO (swine origin)

MedPrep Consulting Group LLC
Dr. Stuart B. Weiss 
IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #12
WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5
MAY 3, 2009
 
Daily Brief Call Today at 1:00PM  call-in: 866-369-8761 
 
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As things settle down a bit in North America, the virus is still spreading in other parts of the world.
 
Pigs finally get swine flu!
While it seems that we have an opportunity to temporarily catch our breath a little in North America, the new H1N1 virus continues to spread in other countries. The good news is that it remains a relatively mild illness. The bad news is that it is spreading into South America at the beginning of their flu season and it has jumped back into pigs from humans.
 
CURRENT SITUATION:
  • The number of confirmed cases increased to 787 people in 17 countries around the world.
  • In the U.S. as of yesterday, there were 160 confirmed cases in 21 states with one death. the new numbers for today will come out on the CDC site a bit later. 
  • Mexico is reporting a marked drop in the number of people presenting to hospitals with flu-like illness.
  • The first confirmed outbreak of "swine flu" in pigs has been documented in a pig farm in Alberta, Canada. A worker there recently returned from Mexico, became ill and infected the animals. Influenza viruses are common in pigs but jumping from a human to pigs is more concerning (see analysis). The pigs have been quarantined and there is no threat to food safety.
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ANALYSIS:
This situation is highly fluid as details continue to emerge. 
  
As I write this today, there seems to be a general feeling that things here in North America are stabilizing. The number of new cases in Mexico is reportedly down and there have not been any more deaths in the U.S.. The news is not filled with hundreds of "swine flu" stories and the naysayers are starting to point fingers.
 
The problem is that we are not out of the woods yet. This virus is now spreading in parts of the Southern hemisphere at the beginning of their flu season (suspected cases in South America, Australia and New Zealand). The other problem has to do with the pigs that became infected with H1N1 (swine origin) from a human. The fact that the virus has the ability to jump from pigs to humans and from humans to pigs is concerning. Pigs (and people) serve as a great mixing vessel for viruses to exchange genetic material. The 1918 pandemic virus is thought to have been created by mixing of genetic material in pigs that created a new virus that jumped to humans. The fact that this virus can spread in pig populations and also in humans over the Southern Hemisphere flu season means we must not let our guard down until we see what happens in the fall. I will write more about this tomorrow.
 
 
ADVICE:
  • Follow the progression of the virus. There is a great tracking map that has been created by a noted virologist. You can click on individual points on the map and read short case descriptions. Check out: http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com
  • Continue the refinement and completion of your pandemic plan. Focus on all the unanswered questions and missing policies that you can fill in at this time.
  • Build and Maintain your corporate communication channels. Now is the time to test how you disseminate important information to your employees in a timely fashion and work out all the bugs.
  • Review your crisis communications plans. We have emphasized the creation of pre-written message maps with our clients during their pandemic planning. Message maps help you create and maintain a database of pre-written, pre-approved messages that can be sent out during a crisis. If you want help creating message maps, please email me.
  • Educate your employees. In public health, there are few "teachable moment" when people are tuned in to public health messages. Now is one of those times. Take time to teach your employees about good hand hygiene and cough and sneeze etiquette. These practices will not only reduce your absenteeism during a pandemic but also during seasonal flu season each winter.
 
 

Although we may get a chance to catch our breath in the next few weeks do not relax on your planning efforts. This virus may take a summer break but it could be back in full force this fall.

 
Let us know if you need help reviewing your plan, designing educational posters or writing FAQ's (frequently asked questions) or policies. We have resources and expertise that you can use.
 
 
Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly.
 
 
 
If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com
 
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Dr. Stuart Weiss is a nationally recognized pandemic planning expert and CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. MedPrep can assist you with your pandemic planning, training and exercising needs. Drop me a note if you want more information about us. 
 

 

 
 
 

Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP
MedPrep Consulting Group LLC
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