| MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss | | IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #15 WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5 | | MAY 6, 2009 Daily Brief Call Today at 1:00PM call-in: 866-369-8761 (we will modify Daily Brief call schedule based on the need. We will post future call schedule here) | | CDC expects a big bump in U.S. cases in the next few days but it will be hard to find it in the media | | On the CDC media briefing call yesterday, Dr. Besser, the acting head of the CDC said that they expect a big bump in reported U.S. cases as states work through the backlog of specimens. The CDC also posted relaxed school guidance reflecting the new understanding of the H1N1 (swine) virus. CURRENT SITUATION: - The WHO is reporting that since yesterday, the number of confirmed cases increased from 1124 people in 21 countries to 1516 people in 22 countries around the world. The WHO kept the Pandemic Phase at 5 and will only raise it to 6 if there is sustained community level outbreaks in other parts of the world (note: Spain already is reporting 57 cases)
- In the U.S. there are 403 confirmed cases and about 700 probable cases in 44 states (as per media briefing yesterday). Texas reported the second U.S. death related to H1N1 (swine) in a 33 year old pregnant woman. Apparently she had underlying medical problems and died earlier in the week.
- Mexico continues to report a marked drop in the number of people presenting to hospitals with flu-like illness. Mexico is reopening government offices and restaurants today and will reopen museums, libraries and churches tomorrow
- The vast majority of cases outside of Mexico continue to be mild influenza illness which people recover from uneventfully
- China continues to brace itself against a repeat of the 2003 SARS outbreak situation. China has now changed the Visa requirements for U.S. citizens traveling to China. All Visas will now require 6 business days to process. Express and rush services for U.S. citizens have been cancelled. U.S. citizens also must declare what countries and what U.S. states they have visited within the past two weeks
- The CDC posted new relaxed guidance on school closures which now emphasizes keeping children and staff home if they are sick but removes the recommendation to close schools if they have a confirmed case of H1N1 (swine). This reflects the new understanding of the disease caused by the H1N1 (swine) virus. You can find the new guidance at: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/K12_dismissal.htm
- The CDC reported on the media briefing call yesterday that there are 86 CDC personnel working on tracking the outbreak with 16 deployed to help in Mexico.
- The CDC also reported that states are gaining the ability to test for H1N1 (swine) themselves (previously only the CDC could confirm H1N1 (swine)) and will be working through all the specimens they have. This could cause a bump in the reported number of cases and does not mean that there has been a huge resurgence of new cases.
| | HOUSEKEEPING ITEM: If you receive this alert indirectly through a mailing list or from a friend or colleague please take a moment and sign up to receive it directly from us by clicking on the button at the bottom of this alert or by sending an email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com with the word signup in the subject. ANALYSIS: Its going to get harder and harder to find stories about H1N1 (swine) as the days move forward. I was at a gathering of news media here in New York City last evening and every time I mentioned H1N1 (swine) people rolled their eyes and told me that this was now old news. In fact, we get RSS feeds from most of the major news services and this morning the number of stories is greatly reduced. With all the good news about the mildness of the viral disease, you may lose your sense of urgency about this problem if you don't have offices in the Southern Hemisphere (where the flu season is just getting into full swing). My recommendation to you continues to be to not lose sight of the fact that we are not out of the woods yet. We won't know until the fall how this new virus will behave. One of the reporters last night said he wasn't worried because if it does come back, we will have a vaccine by then. That is partially true. Vaccine development is actively occurring but safe effective vaccine may not be available until the middle of the fall flu season. So don't take this opportunity to relax your efforts to mature your pandemic plan. Now is the time to work out all the kinks. ADVICE: - Uncouple your plan from the WHO Phases. One of the lessons we have learned from this outbreak is linking pandemic plans to WHO Phases may not be the best approach. For example, one client called us because the plan they developed required all employees to wear N-95 masks at WHO Phase 5. It also required the closing of cafeterias, shutting of non-essential services, etc. Obviously, that was not called for with this outbreak. WHO Phases and CDC Stages should be part of the criteria you use to activate parts of your plan. With our clients, we have worked out a set of criteria that triggers parts of their plan that includes CDC, WHO and other factors. You should develop these same criteria.
- Follow activities in the Southern Hemisphere. If you have meetings scheduled in the Southern Hemisphere in the next few months, it will be important to continue to follow the evolution of this outbreak.
- Emphasis good public health practices with your traveling employees. Encourage your employees who are traveling to not board trains or planes if they are sick. Create a culture that allows employees to follow good public health practices.
MedPrep Consulting Group is internationally recognized as a leader in pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising. Let us know if you need help reviewing your plans, designing educational posters, writing FAQ's (frequently asked questions) or policies, etc.. We have resources and expertise that you can count on. Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly. If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com SUBSCRIBE TO ALERTS by clicking the button below. Dr. Stuart Weiss is a nationally recognized pandemic planning expert and CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. MedPrep can assist you with your pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising needs. Drop me a note if you want more information about us. |
Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP
MedPrep Consulting Group LLC | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment