| MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss | | IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #13 WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5 | | MAY 4, 2009 Daily Brief Call Today at 1:00PM call-in: 866-369-8761 | | Mexico may reopen schools and businesses soon as outbreak seems to be waning there while virus digs in deeper in other parts of the world | | Mexican officials last night said that they would be looking into whether to reopen schools and businesses that were shut last week in an effort to contain the outbreak. As the number of new cases drops off in Mexico, new cases continue to appear in other parts of the world. CURRENT SITUATION: - The WHO is reporting that since yesterday, the number of confirmed cases increased from 787 people in 17 countries to 985 people in 20 countries around the world.
- In the U.S. there are 245 confirmed cases in 35 states with one death.
- Mexico continues to report a marked drop in the number of people presenting to hospitals with flu-like illness.
- Tough decisions must be made on which influenza vaccine to produce for next year's flu season. With a finite amount of vaccine manufacturing capability around the world, WHO officials must decide how much seasonal flu vaccine and how much swine flu vaccine to order. In the U.S. that may not be an issue but in other parts of the world it is an important decision that must be made soon.
- Data continues to emerge on the types of people who got sick in Mexico and the U.S.. In the U.S., the majority of people who got sick were younger than 20 years old with the median age being 17 years. The Mexican Health Minister gave more details on the 22 deaths in Mexico: 15 females and 7 males. 96% employed, 50% graduated high school and 11% graduated university.
| | HOUSEKEEPING ITEM: If you receive this alert indirectly through a mailing list or from a friend or colleague please take a moment and sign up to receive it directly from us by clicking on the button at the bottom of this alert or by sending an email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com with the word signup in the subject. ANALYSIS: This situation is highly fluid as details continue to emerge. The sense that things are stabilizing in North America continues today as we continue to see mild disease in people infected with H1N1 (swine) . There are still new cases in the U.S. (35 states reporting confirmed cases, up from 21 States yesterday) but we have still have only one death. While that is reassuring, I want to revisit why you must not let your guard down yet. I wrote about this yesterday but I want to review this again. One of the worrying issues is the confirmed case reported in Columbia in South America. There have also been confirmed cases in New Zealand as well. This is occurring at the beginning of the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere. We will have to watch that half of the world closely over the summer. The other problem has to do with the pigs that became infected with H1N1 (swine) from a human. As you read yesterday, there were pigs on a farm in Alberta, Canada that caught H1N1 (swine) from a farm worker. The fact that the virus has the ability to jump from pigs to humans and from humans to pigs is concerning. Pigs (and people) serve as great mixing vessels for viruses to exchange genetic material. The 1918 pandemic virus is thought to have been created by mixing of genetic material in pigs that created a new virus that jumped to humans. We already have human seasonal influenza virus H1N1 that is resistant to one of the main antiviral drugs that is used to treat H1N1 (swine), namely Tamiflu. There is a genetic mutation called the H274Y mutation that is present in seasonal flu H1N1 that makes it resistant to Tamiflu. This past season, almost 100% of the H1N1 (seasonal) in the U.S. had obtained this resistance. Luckily, none of the H1N1 (swine) is resistant. With both viruses circulating and jumping into humans and pigs, there is more opportunity for genetic mixing and ending up with resistant H1N1 (swine). That would be bad if the virus turns more dangerous. So although things appear to be calming down a bit, this evolving new virus must still be watched closely over the spring and summer. One last item to review. As mentioned last week, if the virus continues to spread and community outbreaks develop in other parts of the world, we will meet the definition of WHO Pandemic Phase 6. This may prompt the WHO to raise the pandemic phase level. Remember, the phases only refer to how widespread the virus is and not how severe it is. ADVICE: - Continue to mature your pandemic plans. Concentrate on the areas that are distinct from your other business continuity strategies.
- Infection Control: cough/sneeze etiquette, hand hygiene, social distancing, creation of hygiene stations
- Increased facility cleaning: increased frequency, reviewing contact time of cleaning solutions, providing cleaning wipes to employees
- Employee education and training related to flu
- Personal Protection Equipment or PPE: review decision about masks, gloves, gowns, etc.
- Communicate, communicate, communicate. During all disaster or crises, one of the top problems identified afterwards is always communications.Make sure your communication channels with important stakeholders like your employees, suppliers, board of directors, shareholders, customers are established and practiced. The time to set these channels up is not during an actual crisis.
Although we may get a chance to catch our breath in the next few weeks do not relax on your planning efforts. This virus may take a summer break but it could be back in full force this fall. Let us know if you need help reviewing your plan, designing educational posters or writing FAQ's (frequently asked questions) or policies. We have resources and expertise that you can use. Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly. If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com SUBSCRIBE TO ALERTS by clicking the button below. Dr. Stuart Weiss is a nationally recognized pandemic planning expert and CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. MedPrep can assist you with your pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising needs. Drop me a note if you want more information about us. |
Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP
MedPrep Consulting Group LLC | | | | |
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