Influenza Update #18 - H1N1-(swine)

MedPrep Consulting Group LLC Dr. Stuart B. Weiss  IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #18 WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5 MAY 11, 2009   Public Daily Brief Call: No call today   SUBSCRIBE: Click button at bottom or send email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com   As expected, numbers rise around the globe. H1N1 (swine) virus spreads in the southern hemisphere.   U.S. reports 3rd death Cases in the U.S. continue to rise as expected since the U.S. is not thought to have reached its peak yet. As the global numbers rise as well, we are seeing virus activity in more countries in the southern hemisphere as that area begins its flu season.   CURRENT SITUATION: The WHO is reporting that there are now 4379 confirmed cases of H1N1 (swine) in 29 countries around the world (up from 2384 in 24 countries on Friday). Confirmed cases have appeared in Australia, Japan and China.  In South America, there are now cases confirmed in Columbia, Brazil and Argentina. Cases are also confirmed in New Zealand and Australia. In the U.S. the CDC announced that there are now 2532 confirmed cases in 43 states plus Washington D.C.. The only states without confirmed cases are AK, AR, MS, MT, ND, WV, WY. The U.S. had its third death attributed to H1N1 (swine) in a man in his 30's with underlying medical problems. Canada reported 284 confirmed cases. Canada reported its first death attributed to H1N1 (swine) in a woman in her 30"s with underlying medial problems. The vast majority of H1N1 (swine) cases continue to be mild influenza illnesses in young people who recover uneventfully. 90% of Americans report having fever, 84% cough, 61% have a sore throat. These are all typical seasonal flu symptoms. In addition, about 25% report gastrointestinal symptoms such as vomiting or diarrhea which are not typical of seasonal flu. HOUSEKEEPING ITEM:  If you get this Alert through a mailing list and not directly from us, subscribe by clicking the button at the bottom or send an email to alert@MedPrepGroup.com       ANALYSIS:    Please remember to send me your "Lessons Learned". We are compiling the responses.   As expected, the numbers of confirmed cases has risen over the weekend. This virus seems to be spreading slightly more easily than seasonal flu. In addition, we have seen more deaths attributed to H1N1 (swine). As we see more cases, expect to see more deaths. So far, all three deaths in the U.S. involved people with underlying medical problems.   The WHO so far has kept the Pandemic Phase at 5 although as we have been saying, that could change at any moment. Spain is now reporting 93 confirmed cases. The UK has 39 and France has 12. The remainder of countries have less than 10 cases. Eventually, the WHO will raise the Phase level to 6.   There was alot of discussion late last week about H1N1 (swine) mixing with H5N1 (avian) virus in Southeast Asia or the Middle East. That is one of the nightmare scenarios. If H1N1 (swine) with its easy transmitability mixes with H5N1 (avian) with its high mortality and a new virus emerges that has both characteristics, we are in for a bad time. This speculation was reported in the media last week and made for interesting reading however, there is no way to know how likely that is to occur. H5N1 (avian) has been circulating in areas with seasonal H1N1 for years without sharing genetic material. So who knows? Mother Nature holds all the cards and makes all the rules at this point. We must continue to monitor the situation closely.     ADVICE: Take the time over the summer to continue maturing your plan. Use this time before the next flu season to work on your seasonal and H1N1 (swine) flu plans.  Use the "teachable moment" to educate your employees. In public health, we have few "teachable moments" where people are focused on public health issues. This is one of those moments so use it wisely. Teach your employees about cough/sneeze etiquette and hand hygiene. You will look like a hero this fall/winter when your efforts reduce absenteeism from seasonal flu.   Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly.       If you have any questions or concerns that we can help you with, please feel free to reach out to me. My email is: sweiss@MedPrepGroup.com       MedPrep Consulting Group is internationally recognized as a leader in pandemic, disaster and business continuity planning, training and exercising. We have resources and expertise that you can count on.   Dr. Stuart Weiss is the CEO of MedPrep Consulting Group. For more information, visit www.MedPrepGroup.com   Stuart Weiss, MD, CBCP MedPrep Consulting Group LLC